CNN’s KFile reported last week on North Carolina Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson making inflammatory and racist remarks on a porn website’s message board. We now have polling data measuring the potential impact of that investigation on the race.
Robinson looks like he may suffer the largest defeat in more than 40 years for a major-party nominee for governor in North Carolina.
Our CNN/SSRS poll puts Democrat Josh Stein up 53% to Robinson’s 36% among likely Tar Heel State voters. The poll was conducted entirely after publication of the KFile story.
Notably, Stein’s 17-point advantage is larger than his lead in any poll taken this year. It is significantly larger than the 11- and 10-point leads Stein had in surveys from slightly earlier this month from Marist College and The New York Times/Siena College.
A good chunk of those sticking by Robinson may only be doing so because he is a Republican. His favorable rating among likely voters is a mere 27%. The clear majority, 53%, have an unfavorable view.
The fact that 80% of likely voters can form an opinion of Robinson is notable too. That is far higher than the 63% who can do so about Stein, despite his being the state’s attorney general. (Voters like Stein a lot more as indicated by his 40% favorable rating and 23% unfavorable rating.)
Opinions of Robinson among Republicans are better, but just 53% have a favorable view of him. A large minority, 25%, have an unfavorable opinion. Another 19% have heard of him but didn’t offer an opinion. It’s not hard to imagine that a lot of North Carolina Republican don’t want to speak ill of a fellow party member, but don’t want to give Robinson a thumbs-up, either.
The bottom line is that it’s tough to see any silver lining in the latest data for Robinson. Yes, he was likely to lose the race long before the scandal hit last week, as indicated by the polling all year.
Now, though, it doesn’t just look like Robinson is going to lose. It looks like he’s going to be humiliated at the ballot box.